According to Gary Black, market pricing implies a 95% probability of a 25 bp Fed funds rate cut on Wednesday to 3.5–3.75%, with two additional 25 bp cuts expected in March and June 2026, and Powell likely to lean hawkish at the press conference to appease FOMC inflation hawks, source: Gary Black (X, Dec 7, 2025). He states that National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is the frontrunner for the next Fed chair and could join as soon as February, potentially rendering Powell a lame duck for the final months of his chairmanship, source: Gary Black (X, Dec 7, 2025). Black adds that Hassett is a known dove, likely lifting inflation expectations, which he cites as a reason the 10-year Treasury yield has risen in recent weeks, source: Gary Black (X, Dec 7, 2025). For crypto traders, easing policy and rising inflation expectations have historically coincided with stronger performance in liquidity-sensitive risk assets, including BTC and ETH, when real yields fall, source: ARK Invest, Big Ideas 2023; Federal Reserve, Financial Stability Report 2023.

According to @AltcoinGordon, there is a 99.4% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut occurring in 11 days, highlighting a near-certain policy shift that is directly relevant to rate-sensitive crypto positioning. Source: @AltcoinGordon on X. According to @AltcoinGordon, current sell-offs are merely shakeouts and selling now would be a mistake (NGMI), signaling a contrarian, risk-on stance into the decision window. Source: @AltcoinGordon on X. According to @AltcoinGordon, this view implies avoiding de-risking into the event, treating dips as shakeouts, and preparing for event-driven volatility in BTC and ETH rather than exiting positions prematurely. Source: @AltcoinGordon on X.

According to Skew Δ (@52kskew), market pricing for a 25bps rate cut at the June 18th, 2025 FOMC meeting has increased from 57% to 63%, reflecting evolving expectations based on recent economic data. This shift indicates growing trader anticipation of easing monetary policy as concerns about economic weakness mount, even as the Fed remains attentive to inflationary pressures (source: @52kskew, Twitter, April 30, 2025). For crypto traders, this heightened rate cut probability may boost Bitcoin and altcoin price volatility in the short term, as lower rates typically drive risk-on sentiment and inflows into digital assets.